Integrated intelligence across three disciplines
AFRIS analyses the political, security and economic dimensions of African affairs together, because in practice they cannot be separated.
Political Intelligence
We explain who holds power, how decisions are made and where political change is likely to come from, at national, regional and local levels.
- Grassroots political analysis
- Actor and power mapping
- Election and policy analysis
- Leadership and biography profiling
- Transition scenarios
Security Intelligence
We assess threats and the dynamics of conflict so that organisations can protect people, operations and investments.
- Threat and risk assessments
- Conflict dynamics
- Security investigations
- Incident analysis
- Early-warning indicators
- Security training
Economic Risk Intelligence
We help investors, businesses and financial institutions understand the risks behind economic decisions, including those that originate in politics and security.
- Country risk
- Corporate due diligence
- Business and investment risk
- Entity and individual profiling
- Political and security impact analysis
Reliable findings, responsibly produced
AFRIS conducts in-depth research and discreet investigations into individuals, organisations, networks and events. Our clients need to know how far they can rely on what we tell them, so every finding is accompanied by a clear assessment of reliability and confidence.
How we assess reliability
Each source is evaluated on its track record, its access to the information it provides and any interests that might affect it. Each item of information is assessed separately on whether it is corroborated by independent sources and consistent with what is already known.
How we express confidence
Our judgements carry a stated level of confidence (high, moderate or low) reflecting the quality and quantity of the evidence behind them. We distinguish clearly between established facts, analytical judgements and information that remains unverified.
How we protect sources and methods
We do not disclose the identity of our sources or the specific methods used in an investigation. This protects the people who assist our work and preserves our ability to produce reliable intelligence in future. Our reports explain the basis of our confidence without exposing how information was obtained.
Analytical products
Products are tailored to each client's requirements and delivered at the frequency their decisions demand.
| Product | Purpose | Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| Security briefs | Concise updates on security developments and their implications | Daily, weekly or monthly |
| Country reports | Comprehensive assessments of a country's political, security and economic context | On request or periodic |
| Threat reports | Focused analysis of specific threats, actors or locations | On request |
| Political analysis | Assessment of political developments, actors and likely trajectories | On request or periodic |
| Early-warning alerts | Timely notice of emerging risks identified through indicator monitoring | As events require |
| Biography profiles | Evidence-based profiles of leaders and individuals of interest | On request |
Preparing for what comes next
Foresight helps organisations move from reacting to events to anticipating them. AFRIS develops plausible futures, identifies the signals that indicate which is unfolding, and advises on how to prepare.
- Scenario development and planning
- Early-warning indicator frameworks
- Strategic risk briefings for leadership teams
- Advisory support for policy, programme and investment decisions
Request a consultation
Discuss a research assignment, an analytical requirement or a training programme with the AFRIS team.